European governments are confronting a growing defense problem: even as NATO members prepare to spend substantially more on security, the United States may not be able to deliver every missile and weapons system as quickly as allies expected.
The issue has become a central concern at NATO’s July 7–8 summit in Ankara, where leaders are discussing defense spending, military production and support for Ukraine. Washington has urged Europe and Canada to assume more responsibility for their own security, while European officials increasingly question whether relying heavily on American manufacturers leaves the continent vulnerable to delays during simultaneous global conflicts.
The United States warned several European countries earlier this year that previously scheduled weapons deliveries could be delayed because American stockpiles and production capacity were under pressure from the war involving Iran. Officials from Finland and Estonia subsequently confirmed that some U.S. defense shipments had been affected.
The situation does not mean the United States has stopped supplying its allies. Instead, it reflects competition for a limited number of advanced weapons needed by the U.S. military, Ukraine, European NATO members and other partners.
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Air-defense interceptors are among the most urgently sought systems. Patriot missiles are designed to destroy aircraft, cruise missiles and certain ballistic missiles, making them particularly important for Ukraine and NATO countries concerned about Russia’s missile capabilities.
That shortage became more visible after a major Russian attack on Kyiv and surrounding areas killed at least 28 people. Ukraine said it was unable to intercept 23 ballistic missiles during the assault, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to renew his request for additional Patriot interceptors and expanded production.
Production is increasing, but manufacturing advanced interceptors takes time. Lockheed Martin said it delivered 620 PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement interceptors in 2025. Under a new seven-year agreement with the U.S. government, the company plans to expand annual production capacity from approximately 600 missiles to about 2,000. That expansion is significant, but the full increase will not occur immediately.
Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies have warned that rebuilding inventories depleted by recent conflicts will be a multiyear effort. A separate CSIS assessment said delivery and replenishment timelines for several critical munitions could extend beyond three years, even as governments announce new investments and production agreements.
Europe is responding by trying to move more maintenance and manufacturing closer to the countries that will use the weapons.
A senior U.S. defense official announced in Ankara that Washington plans to establish a European maintenance facility for PAC-3 missiles. Germany, Poland, Sweden and the Netherlands are involved in the project, and U.S. officials have not ruled out eventually allowing PAC-3 production outside the United States.
European countries are also investing in other Patriot components. Germany, the Netherlands and Spain previously agreed to purchase as many as 1,000 PAC-2 missiles under a €5.1 billion arrangement involving a new production facility in Germany. Manufacturing is scheduled to begin near the end of 2026, with initial deliveries expected in 2027. Negotiations are also advancing over possible European co-production of American-designed AMRAAM air-to-air missiles.
These projects fit NATO’s broader commitment to invest 5% of gross domestic product annually in defense and security-related priorities by 2035. At least 3.5% is intended for core military requirements, while up to 1.5% may support infrastructure, resilience, cybersecurity and defense-industrial development.
However, larger budgets alone will not immediately solve the shortage. Governments must secure raw materials, expand factories, train skilled workers and negotiate technology-sharing agreements. Some weapons also contain sensitive American technology that Washington may be reluctant to manufacture abroad.
The developing problem is therefore not simply whether the United States remains committed to NATO. It is whether one country’s industrial base can meet the demands of American forces and numerous allies during several overlapping security crises.
For Europe, the likely answer will involve continued purchases from the United States combined with greater domestic production, joint factories and more diversified suppliers. That transition could strengthen NATO over the long term, but it also creates a difficult period in which demand may continue to exceed available supplies.
Why It Matters
Missile shortages directly affect NATO’s ability to defend cities, military bases and critical infrastructure. For Ukraine, insufficient interceptors can mean that more Russian ballistic missiles reach populated areas. For European taxpayers, delayed deliveries raise questions about whether billions in new defense spending will produce usable equipment quickly enough.
The pressure may also reshape Europe’s economy by directing more public money toward local defense factories, engineering jobs and supply chains instead of relying almost entirely on American production.
What Comes Next
NATO governments are expected to announce additional joint-purchasing, maintenance and co-production agreements following the Ankara summit. European countries will also continue searching for alternatives to systems that have long depended on U.S. suppliers.
The planned production increases should eventually improve availability, but officials and manufacturers have indicated that closing the gap will take years rather than months.
NATO allies announced a major European missile project as concerns grow over limited weapons supplies.
Nato allies announce £37bn for new missile project https://t.co/ffwLKD4wuj
— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) July 8, 2026
NATO leaders unveiled arms deals worth tens of billions of dollars in Turkey, driving home the message that they are heeding US calls to spend more to defend Europe even as President Trump said he felt let down and renewed his push to control Greenland https://t.co/qukiq6AWlj pic.twitter.com/pPz9J3QClx
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 8, 2026
