President Donald Trump said he may allow the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement to expire in 2036 rather than renew it during the current review process, injecting new uncertainty into one of the world’s largest trade relationships.
The USMCA, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement in 2020, governs trade between the United States, Canada and Mexico. It covers major sectors including autos, agriculture, energy, labor rules, digital trade and intellectual property.
The agreement is now approaching a critical review deadline. Under USMCA rules, the three countries must decide whether to extend the deal for another 16 years. If all three agree, the agreement would remain in force on a longer timeline. If one or more countries decline to renew, the deal does not immediately disappear, but it would move into annual reviews and could expire in 2036.
Trump told reporters he is “not looking” to renew the agreement, saying it had already served its purpose by replacing NAFTA, which he has long called a bad deal for American workers.
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“I don’t know that I’m going to redo it because, to be honest with you, we don’t need anything Canada has, we don’t need anything that Mexico has,” Trump said, according to Reuters. He also argued that Canada and Mexico need access to the U.S. market more than the United States needs their goods.
The comments mark a major shift in tone from Trump’s first term, when he promoted USMCA as one of his signature economic achievements. The agreement was designed to modernize NAFTA while tightening rules for auto production, strengthening labor provisions and updating trade rules for the digital economy.
Now, Trump appears to be using the review process as leverage. His administration has repeatedly complained about U.S. trade deficits with both Canada and Mexico. Reuters reported that the United States had a $46 billion goods trade deficit with Canada and a $197 billion deficit with Mexico in 2025.
Trump said those deficits should not exist and argued that the United States should be running surpluses with both neighbors.
“We should have surpluses with them,” Trump said. “We don’t need their cars. We don’t need their lumber. We don’t need their energy. We don’t need anything.”
The remarks are likely to alarm businesses that depend on integrated North American supply chains. Automakers, farmers, energy companies, manufacturers and retailers all rely on predictable trade rules between the three countries.
Mexico is one of America’s largest trading partners, and Canada remains deeply tied to the U.S. economy through energy, autos, agriculture, lumber and manufacturing. Reuters noted that USMCA supports nearly $1.6 trillion in annual trade and has helped build a tightly linked North American market.
The possibility of non-renewal does not mean the agreement would end immediately. Trade experts say the July 2026 review acts more like a pressure point than a hard termination date. If the parties do not agree to extend USMCA, the agreement would remain in place for up to 10 more years while annual reviews continue.
Still, failure to renew would create uncertainty. Companies making long-term investments in factories, logistics, autos, semiconductors, electric vehicles or agriculture would face questions about whether tariff-free North American trade will continue beyond 2036.
The uncertainty is already affecting diplomatic strategy. Canada has been urging renewal and trying to protect its preferential access to the U.S. market. Reuters reported that nearly 70% of Canadian exports still go to the United States, showing how dependent Canada remains on American demand.
Mexico is also pushing to preserve the agreement. The U.S. and Mexico have already held bilateral talks related to the USMCA review, with discussions focused on automotive rules of origin, steel and aluminum, economic security and supply chains. The U.S. Trade Representative said the two countries concluded a first bilateral round and planned further discussions, including talks on agriculture.
One notable issue is that Washington has been holding talks with Mexico while formal talks with Canada have lagged. Reuters reported that recent U.S.-Mexico negotiating rounds did not include Canada, raising questions about whether the Trump administration is trying to reshape the agreement through separate pressure on each partner.
For Trump, the threat not to renew USMCA fits a broader trade strategy built around leverage, tariffs and demands for more favorable terms. He has argued that the U.S. market is the prize and that other countries must offer better treatment to keep access.
For Canada and Mexico, the risk is that the United States may demand major changes before agreeing to extend the deal. That could include tougher rules on autos, stronger protections against Chinese imports entering through North America, agricultural concessions, border-security provisions or changes in energy and manufacturing rules.
The business community is likely to push for stability. Many companies supported USMCA because it preserved regional trade while updating NAFTA. A prolonged annual-review process could make planning more difficult, especially in industries where investment decisions stretch over decades.
The political impact could also be significant. Farmers may worry about access to Mexican and Canadian markets. Automakers could face uncertainty over parts and assembly rules. Energy producers may be affected by cross-border supply chains. Consumers could eventually face higher prices if trade rules weaken or tariffs return.
Trump’s comments do not end USMCA, but they raise the stakes for the upcoming review. His message to Canada and Mexico is clear: the United States may not extend the agreement unless Washington receives better terms.
Whether that is a negotiating tactic or a serious threat will become clearer as talks continue.
Why It Matters
This matters because USMCA is central to North American trade. It affects everything from cars and farm products to energy, manufacturing, digital commerce and supply chains.
It also matters because even the possibility of non-renewal could create uncertainty for investors and businesses. If companies cannot be sure the agreement will survive beyond 2036, they may delay or rethink long-term North American investments.
What Comes Next
The U.S., Mexico and Canada face a July 2026 review process that will determine whether the agreement is extended for another 16 years or enters a period of annual reviews.
The next round of U.S.-Mexico talks is expected to focus on agriculture and trade practices, while Canada continues pushing for a renewal that protects access to the American market.
Trump said he is “not looking” to renew the USMCA trade agreement.
He argued the U.S. does not need Canada or Mexico as much as they need access to the American market.
Reporter: How confident are you that you’ll be able to renew the USMCA and what more do you expect from Canada?
Trump: I’m not looking to renew it. We don’t need anything that Canada has. We don’t need anything that Mexico has, but they need everything that we have. We don’t… pic.twitter.com/FwtLZTEtj5
— Acyn (@Acyn) June 10, 2026
