Tripling the share of American workers who belong to labor unions could increase the median worker’s pay by 14.5% and redirect approximately $1.2 trillion annually toward employee compensation, according to a new Economic Policy Institute report.
The analysis examines what could happen if U.S. union membership increased from its current level of about 10% to 30%, approximately matching the density recorded during the middle of the 20th century.
Under that scenario, the institute estimates that the median hourly wage would rise from $25.67 to $29.39. For a full-time worker employed throughout the year, that would represent an increase of more than $7,700 annually, or nearly $270,000 over a 35-year career in today’s dollars.
The report does not predict that union membership will automatically triple or that every worker would receive the same raise. Its figures are projections based on statistical relationships between state unionization levels and median wages, combined with research showing that collective bargaining can also affect pay at nonunion workplaces.
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The authors found that every 10-percentage-point difference in union density was associated with approximately 7.2% higher real median wages. They argue that unions raise compensation directly for members while also placing pressure on competing employers to improve wages and benefits to attract and retain workers.
To calculate the nationwide $1.2 trillion figure, the researchers assumed that the projected 14.5% wage benefit would apply to roughly half of total labor income, representing most workers outside the highest-paid portion of the economy. Their calculation produced approximately $1.16 trillion in additional annual compensation, which the report rounded to $1.2 trillion.
That methodology is important because the headline figure is not money currently being withheld in a single fund that could immediately be transferred. It represents the researchers’ estimate of how wages and benefits might be distributed differently in an economy with much stronger collective bargaining.
Union membership remains near historic lows despite a slight increase in 2025. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 14.7 million wage and salary workers belonged to unions last year, representing 10% of the workforce, compared with 9.9% in 2024. Public-sector workers had a unionization rate of 32.9%, while the private-sector rate was only 5.9%.
The official data also show a substantial earnings difference. Full-time union members had median weekly earnings of $1,404 in 2025, compared with $1,174 for nonunion workers. The Labor Department cautions that the comparison does not control for differences involving occupation, industry, education, geography and other worker characteristics.
Support for unions is considerably higher than actual membership. A 2025 Gallup survey found that 68% of American adults approved of labor unions, including 90% of Democrats, 69% of independents and 41% of Republicans.
The EPI report estimates that approximately 56 million nonunion workers would vote to organize if given the opportunity, which would theoretically push membership above the 30% scenario examined by the researchers.
The analysis also argues that stronger union membership could reduce racial wage disparities. It estimates that tripling union density would reduce the median wage gap between Black and Hispanic workers and white workers by more than one-third, partly because collective bargaining has historically produced larger relative wage gains for lower-paid groups.
Additional projected effects include wider access to employer-sponsored health insurance and increased pressure on nonunion companies to raise compensation. The report estimates that the share of nonelderly Americans without health insurance could fall by roughly one-quarter under the 30% unionization scenario.
The authors recommend expanding federal collective-bargaining protections, strengthening penalties for labor-law violations and limiting state laws that restrict union funding and bargaining. They estimate that repealing so-called right-to-work laws and guaranteeing collective bargaining for more public employees could raise national union density from roughly 10% to 14.4%, still well below the report’s 30% goal.
Business groups and opponents of expanded union power are likely to question whether the model fully accounts for higher labor costs, possible effects on hiring and differences between highly unionized and less unionized states. Statistical associations between stronger unions and higher wages also do not establish that unionization alone produced every observed difference.
The report nevertheless presents a clear argument: rebuilding collective bargaining would not benefit only workers who become union members. Its authors contend that greater worker bargaining power could influence wages throughout regional labor markets and change how economic growth is divided between employees, executives and investors.
Why It Matters
For workers struggling with housing, food, health care and transportation costs, an additional $7,700 a year would represent a meaningful improvement in household finances.
The report also adds to the wider debate over why productivity has grown much faster than typical worker compensation since 1979. Its findings suggest that declining union power may be one factor allowing a larger share of economic gains to flow toward high earners and capital owners rather than ordinary employees.
What Comes Next
Labor organizations are expected to use the report to support legislation strengthening organizing and collective-bargaining rights. Employers and business groups may challenge its assumptions and argue that workplace flexibility, investment and job creation must also be considered.
Any move toward tripling union membership would require major legal, political and workplace changes over many years. The immediate debate will focus on whether Congress and individual states should remove existing barriers that make it harder for workers to organize.
